Post by Anomaly on Nov 2, 2012 11:17:33 GMT -5
In the Breeders' Cup Classic, Hawkstone Stables is sending three of our best runners: Animosity, Repose, and Warranty. Both Animosity and Repose are tailor-made for this 1 1/4 mile on the dirt, and while Warranty will handle both dirt and turf, which is why he is also entered in the 1 1/2 Breeders' Cup Turf.
Animosity
Of the three, I think Animosity will get the best trip - there's not a whole lot of speed signed on, which makes Bramble even more dangerous than usual. Ammo put in a dull effort in his final prep for this in the Blind Luck Stakes, but before that was second in the Halloween Classic. He's been training well and I'm hoping he's set for a good effort today.
Repose is a closer but he's been able to sit a little closer before and while he'll probably be the longest shot in the field and is a little light on conditioning, he's proven he belongs with this group. I couldn't ask for anything except maybe a bit more pace to set it up for him!
Warranty could be compromised if Bramble gets loose and sets a slow pace, so I'm hoping Sweet Secrets' other filly, Ellie, will keep things honest up front. Barbaro is probably the other horse I'm really worried about. He'll be near the pace early and he might just be better than any of the others. Every horse in there is talented, though, and anybody could win.
In the Turf, we've got Warranty, Sent by Ares, and Monarchy. Obviously Warranty is the horse with the best chance of our three in there. Ares is a maiden and lightly raced at that, but he had the points and I wanted to give him a chance. Unfortunately there's no chance of him getting away from the field unless Bramble and Man O War both somehow break poorly, but anything can happen and I think that this colt has more ability to show. This is probably too tough for him, but he's earned the shot.
I like Warranty's chances here more than in the Classic. The problem with Ares is what will help Warranty - with Bramble, Sent by Ares, and Man O War all winging it on the front end, it might set up well for Warranty. John Henry, Misty, and Urban Magic will all be rolling late with him, but if he is on his A game he can contend. He hasn't been in the greatest form as of late, but I'm hoping he's saved the best for now.
Monarchy breezing with Chepzibah
Monarchy is probably in over his head but he's the one horse in the race who wants to be in the middle of the pack and that could be a big advantage - he should sit behind the dueling pacesetters and get the jump on the closers. He is a G3 winners and if he gets a clean trip he could surprise everyone with a good effort.
Hawkstone's Distaff crew isn't as strong as our males, no way around that. Gucci is another maiden trying to step up huge, and Chepzibah is also very light on conditioning.
Silver Swallow checking out her surroundings after arriving at the track
Silver Swallow is interesting to me. She was a longtime maiden who really woke up in the Stars Ablaze Handicap last time, and that was actually the first time I'd ever thought we might have something with her. She's really flexible and can do whatever she needs to. There's a ton of speed in this race, so I don't think she'll really stalk like she usually does but she'll be okay with that. She put in a nice breeze the other day, so she should run well but I'm not sure if that'll be enough.
Chepzibah is a very hit-or-miss filly - she runs huge or she runs last. She's woefully light on stats but anything can happen in these races. Gucci is more consistent, but still a maiden and lightly conditioned. Her advantage could be that I see her sitting near last early, with maybe only Zenyatta and Misty behind her. Her only chance is if she can get a clean trip and get the jump on those two, because they are the ones to beat.
Siren's Soliloquy is going in the Marathon off of the most bizarre race I've ever seen from a horse. She is a classic dead closer, but pulled an audible last out and decided to go to the front. I was really impressed with her will to win in that race - she got passed in the lane but came back to gut out the victory. She's in over her head against the likes of these, but deserves a chance to prove her class.
In the Filly and Mare Turf, we have our first Win and You're In qualifier, Paris in Flames. She's been running well lately and I think she'll make the others work for it. The usual suspects are dangerous but I don't think Paris will shame herself against them. Chepzibah's chances here are the same as in the Distaff to me, but again she had the points and deserved a shot.
Perazim (tack by Tatty)
We have Perazim, Silver Swallow, and Vermillion in the Dirt Mile. A few months ago, Perazim was on some kind of roll, hitting the board in all but one of his 16 starts from October to June. We laid him up from June to September, though, and since then hasn't been quite the same. Two starts back, in the Caleb's Posse Stakes, he showed a glimpse of his old form when he ran second, and he's been encountering a bit of traffic trouble as of late. He's coming off of a 7th-place effort in the 9 furlong Blind Luck Stakes, and I think cutting back to his preferred distance of a mile will be helpful. He will need a good trip and to catch a break, but on his day he's pretty good.
Vermillion
Vermillion is one of the best sprinters in the barn and a mile is in her wheelhouse. She's had some disappointing races as of late, though, and will need to put in a lifetime best effort to win. I think she could be one of the quickest early, though - I think Style is the only one who should outbreak her. Whether she can maintain that advantage remains to be seen.
Skadar
In the Mile, we have the single most exciting horse in the barn, Skadar, along with Vermillion and Paris in Flames. Since I've already discussed the fillies, I'll talk Skadar. He's riding a four-race win streak but did not face either of the other Win and You're In qualifiers in any of those races - Barbaro and Bramble. Barbaro is the scarier of the two in this spot. A mile might be a little short for Bramble and she's going to need to face some of the best front-runners around. Barbaro will be sitting behind the speed and I'm hoping we can actually get a little better position and get the jump on him - we'll need to catch a break to defeat the Hard Tack and Sweet Secrets Teams but he's doing everything right and I couldn't ask for anything more.
Gucci frolicking in the paddock
In the Sprint, Vermillion, Enigma, and Gucci are entered. Gucci is probably overmatched but hopefully can get a piece of the action. Enigma might have the best chance of our three, there's a lot of speed in the race and while Oscar and Phar Lap are very dangerous, Enigma can hold his own against these. He won the Musical Romance Stakes two back and if he rebounds from his disappointing race last out he's got a chance.
Vermillion, Enigma, and Skadar are all in the Turf Sprint. Skadar usually goes a little longer but I'm hoping his quick acceleration will be effective at this shorter distance - all indications are that 7 furlongs should be okay for him. I like that he's the only horse in the race with an affinity for turf - every other horse is a dual-surface runner but Skadar was made for turf and I hope that gives him an edge. Vermillion and Enigma are both proven G3 horses and I hope they won't embarrass themselves. Vermillion's big question in both of her races is whether she can handle pace pressure, as she has yet to really prove that she can do that.
Animosity
Of the three, I think Animosity will get the best trip - there's not a whole lot of speed signed on, which makes Bramble even more dangerous than usual. Ammo put in a dull effort in his final prep for this in the Blind Luck Stakes, but before that was second in the Halloween Classic. He's been training well and I'm hoping he's set for a good effort today.
Repose is a closer but he's been able to sit a little closer before and while he'll probably be the longest shot in the field and is a little light on conditioning, he's proven he belongs with this group. I couldn't ask for anything except maybe a bit more pace to set it up for him!
Warranty could be compromised if Bramble gets loose and sets a slow pace, so I'm hoping Sweet Secrets' other filly, Ellie, will keep things honest up front. Barbaro is probably the other horse I'm really worried about. He'll be near the pace early and he might just be better than any of the others. Every horse in there is talented, though, and anybody could win.
In the Turf, we've got Warranty, Sent by Ares, and Monarchy. Obviously Warranty is the horse with the best chance of our three in there. Ares is a maiden and lightly raced at that, but he had the points and I wanted to give him a chance. Unfortunately there's no chance of him getting away from the field unless Bramble and Man O War both somehow break poorly, but anything can happen and I think that this colt has more ability to show. This is probably too tough for him, but he's earned the shot.
I like Warranty's chances here more than in the Classic. The problem with Ares is what will help Warranty - with Bramble, Sent by Ares, and Man O War all winging it on the front end, it might set up well for Warranty. John Henry, Misty, and Urban Magic will all be rolling late with him, but if he is on his A game he can contend. He hasn't been in the greatest form as of late, but I'm hoping he's saved the best for now.
Monarchy breezing with Chepzibah
Monarchy is probably in over his head but he's the one horse in the race who wants to be in the middle of the pack and that could be a big advantage - he should sit behind the dueling pacesetters and get the jump on the closers. He is a G3 winners and if he gets a clean trip he could surprise everyone with a good effort.
Hawkstone's Distaff crew isn't as strong as our males, no way around that. Gucci is another maiden trying to step up huge, and Chepzibah is also very light on conditioning.
Silver Swallow checking out her surroundings after arriving at the track
Silver Swallow is interesting to me. She was a longtime maiden who really woke up in the Stars Ablaze Handicap last time, and that was actually the first time I'd ever thought we might have something with her. She's really flexible and can do whatever she needs to. There's a ton of speed in this race, so I don't think she'll really stalk like she usually does but she'll be okay with that. She put in a nice breeze the other day, so she should run well but I'm not sure if that'll be enough.
Chepzibah is a very hit-or-miss filly - she runs huge or she runs last. She's woefully light on stats but anything can happen in these races. Gucci is more consistent, but still a maiden and lightly conditioned. Her advantage could be that I see her sitting near last early, with maybe only Zenyatta and Misty behind her. Her only chance is if she can get a clean trip and get the jump on those two, because they are the ones to beat.
Siren's Soliloquy is going in the Marathon off of the most bizarre race I've ever seen from a horse. She is a classic dead closer, but pulled an audible last out and decided to go to the front. I was really impressed with her will to win in that race - she got passed in the lane but came back to gut out the victory. She's in over her head against the likes of these, but deserves a chance to prove her class.
In the Filly and Mare Turf, we have our first Win and You're In qualifier, Paris in Flames. She's been running well lately and I think she'll make the others work for it. The usual suspects are dangerous but I don't think Paris will shame herself against them. Chepzibah's chances here are the same as in the Distaff to me, but again she had the points and deserved a shot.
Perazim (tack by Tatty)
We have Perazim, Silver Swallow, and Vermillion in the Dirt Mile. A few months ago, Perazim was on some kind of roll, hitting the board in all but one of his 16 starts from October to June. We laid him up from June to September, though, and since then hasn't been quite the same. Two starts back, in the Caleb's Posse Stakes, he showed a glimpse of his old form when he ran second, and he's been encountering a bit of traffic trouble as of late. He's coming off of a 7th-place effort in the 9 furlong Blind Luck Stakes, and I think cutting back to his preferred distance of a mile will be helpful. He will need a good trip and to catch a break, but on his day he's pretty good.
Vermillion
Vermillion is one of the best sprinters in the barn and a mile is in her wheelhouse. She's had some disappointing races as of late, though, and will need to put in a lifetime best effort to win. I think she could be one of the quickest early, though - I think Style is the only one who should outbreak her. Whether she can maintain that advantage remains to be seen.
Skadar
In the Mile, we have the single most exciting horse in the barn, Skadar, along with Vermillion and Paris in Flames. Since I've already discussed the fillies, I'll talk Skadar. He's riding a four-race win streak but did not face either of the other Win and You're In qualifiers in any of those races - Barbaro and Bramble. Barbaro is the scarier of the two in this spot. A mile might be a little short for Bramble and she's going to need to face some of the best front-runners around. Barbaro will be sitting behind the speed and I'm hoping we can actually get a little better position and get the jump on him - we'll need to catch a break to defeat the Hard Tack and Sweet Secrets Teams but he's doing everything right and I couldn't ask for anything more.
Gucci frolicking in the paddock
In the Sprint, Vermillion, Enigma, and Gucci are entered. Gucci is probably overmatched but hopefully can get a piece of the action. Enigma might have the best chance of our three, there's a lot of speed in the race and while Oscar and Phar Lap are very dangerous, Enigma can hold his own against these. He won the Musical Romance Stakes two back and if he rebounds from his disappointing race last out he's got a chance.
Vermillion, Enigma, and Skadar are all in the Turf Sprint. Skadar usually goes a little longer but I'm hoping his quick acceleration will be effective at this shorter distance - all indications are that 7 furlongs should be okay for him. I like that he's the only horse in the race with an affinity for turf - every other horse is a dual-surface runner but Skadar was made for turf and I hope that gives him an edge. Vermillion and Enigma are both proven G3 horses and I hope they won't embarrass themselves. Vermillion's big question in both of her races is whether she can handle pace pressure, as she has yet to really prove that she can do that.